Cathie Wood Iinterview In HK: Bitcoin Price Prediction for 2030, HK Is a Leading Crypto Policy Pioneer

8 min readApr 23, 2024

Editor | Wublockchain

Here is the full transcript of the Hong Kong Web3 Festival:

Please welcome the head of HashKey Singapore and CEO of HashKey Capital, Mr. DC, and the CEO and CIO of ARK Invest, Ms. Cathie Wood, to share their insights.

DC: Good morning, everyone! I feel a bit of pressure about today’s panel discussion, but I am also very excited. I’m from HashKey Capital, a frontline institutional investor in the Web3 industry, managing assets over 1 billion USD, with more than 500 projects invested in since we started in Singapore in 2015.

Today, we have invited Cathie Wood, who has many years of experience in the investment field. I am very pleased she could join us. Before we delve deeper into the discussion, Cathie, would you like to say hello to everyone?

Cathie Wood: I am delighted to participate in today’s panel discussion. I regret that I couldn’t be there in person, but I am honored to be invited to today’s conference. I was greatly inspired by the talks from many officials and leaders in Hong Kong earlier, and I hope to bring some perspectives and visions from the United States to everyone today.

DC: Today’s guests are experts from the blockchain ecosystem and fintech fields. Cathie will bring us predictions about mainstream trends and the latest developments.

I’d like to ask, what has been the general direction of Ark Investment in the past few years? How will it continue to influence specific businesses or individuals in the blockchain area in the future?

Cathie Wood: That’s a big question. In the past few years, we have seen Bitcoin and blockchain technology gradually maturing, and I think this is a very grand concept. Why do I say this is a grand concept? Because the internet financial system starting from the perspective of Bitcoin is all interconnected, and this whole system was not considered in the early days of the internet in 1990.

Now, every aspect of e-commerce and financial systems is beginning to be influenced by Web3. The main impact we see now is that many developments are still in their very early stages; it is a market that needs to be developed globally, is cross-border, and will touch everyone. As long as you have internet access, you can be a part of it.

What is very exciting now is that Web3 has slowly begun to take shape, similar to how the telephone and television appeared last century. With technology, we can greatly enhance productivity and income, as well as live better lives, allowing everyone to enjoy life and personal time more, and greatly improve efficiency while awake.

From a 30–40% share in 2010, we will make much larger and better allocations in the next 5–10 years. Digital assets have gradually moved mainstream over the past few years; besides Bitcoin, there are other “digital assets” that not only perform better during bull markets but also help us hedge risks. Regional banks have not performed well during crises in the past, whereas Bitcoin grew by 40%. This year, we have seen more and more devaluation of currencies in developing countries, but on the contrary, the value of Bitcoin has been trending upward. More and more people around the world are understanding the true meaning of Bitcoin, and it has very strong pressure-resistant and anti-depreciation characteristics.

DC: Let’s continue to talk about AI, which is a very hot topic in Silicon Valley and has also attracted widespread attention in Hong Kong.

How do you think AI will integrate with blockchain technology in the future, and what impact will it have in Web3?

Cathie Wood: Your question is excellent. We have a monthly Bitcoin brainstorming session, and we’ve also done a podcast on the integration of AI with Bitcoin. We believe that everyone will learn about the so-called internet economy, whether it’s Uber or Airbnb, many of which have taken root and blossomed in Asia. In the future, everyone will gradually see its benefits, especially for developing countries like Africa, where it can bring about rapid change.

We also see that blockchain technology and gaming will be greatly promoted by AI technology, which is a very interesting area. I recently saw news about Sony’s investment in gaming and Polygon’s investment in blockchain, indicating that more and more funds are being invested in this area.

For example, NFL’s NFLRivals and Polkadot, more gaming projects will integrate AI and blockchain technologies to create more interesting products. Nvidia was very serious about this in 2014, and you can see Nvidia’s GPUs and gaming integration have already been successful. I am very confident about this, and it will definitely be a major area of development in the future.

The core spirit of AI is to provide us with faster processing capabilities, and gaming always leads the edge of the times. The effectiveness in the gaming sector is imminent.

I attended a famous conference in Bitcoin Miami, where it was discussed that more and more people will invest in the virtual market and combine it with existing creativity, rather than just engaging in pure virtual currency trading. In “F1”, we will see more and more blockchain technology being integrated, and more users joining us.

DC: Now let’s turn our attention back to virtual assets. Congratulations once again, as ArkInvest’s Bitcoin Spot ETF has successfully launched. What do you think is the most important milestone for the digital asset ETF industry? Is it surpassing $5 billion? Or are there any specific growth indicators that can serve as milestones?

Cathie Wood: Many people are surprised that Europe has been able to trade for the past five years, but they have never had the sudden surges like in the United States, where there are always dramatic events. As you know, there have been recent lawsuits in the U.S. From a regulatory perspective, agencies like the SEC are very resistant when it comes to crypto and virtual assets, so these lawsuits have taken us a big step forward, gradually making U.S. regulators understand that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin can be traded safely and regulated to some extent. This time, they approved 11 ETF projects, which has never happened before and is a first in history. So, we’re doing our best in market marketing and investor education, providing more educational training to investors to help them understand how to operate within this space.

In the U.S., a very large number of clients have also started to realize that even completely different asset classes can be invested in, and more institutions and investors are willing to put real money in because this asset class can hedge against other sectors and is uncorrelated. Of course, Bitcoin also has risks, and there are bull and bear markets, but unlike other currencies (gold) that can be linked to many factors, how can Bitcoin stand out with its own trend? Because it has asset independence. If you include it in an asset portfolio, because it is not correlated with other things, you can increase asset returns and diversify more risks through this method.

For low-correlation products, some investors in the U.S. are extremely interested and willing to try.

DC: Yes, I’m very happy that in Hong Kong, an open and transparent government leadership is driving industry development, and has implemented many good policies. I would like to hear your suggestions, what advice do you have for the Asian Web3 community? What advice do you have for regulators, investment institutions, and the markets in Asia and Hong Kong?

Cathie Wood: I think you are doing an amazing job. Hong Kong’s regulators, like the SFC, have done very well in providing a comprehensive management framework that allows for the trading of virtual asset commodities, and they have many methods and mechanisms for institutional regulation. Regulatory transparency is crucial for the development of the industry and for technological development, and it also gives technology development more confidence.

Hong Kong is very different from the United States; it progresses much faster. I often mention this at global financial conferences, and it can be said that in terms of policy, Hong Kong is a “leader,” which greatly encourages the development of innovative technology and also encourages entrepreneurial involvement. The cooperative system with the government provides a good model and example for institutions.

Even with many uncertainties in the United States, in Hong Kong, I have seen how many assets and currencies are tokenized and how quickly they respond to market demands. This is a great reference for us. The regulatory bodies in Hong Kong really play a very good leading and exemplary role, and they also allow enterprises to develop their businesses globally with such confidence. I am very happy and congratulate Hong Kong on its development.

Just before I started speaking, I expressed my admiration and also heard about very good policies proposed by other Hong Kong officials. For us, this is a great learning opportunity, and this is very important and my sincere opinion because a healthy, stable environment is crucial for the development of innovative technology industries, for investors, and for consumer protection.

I also encourage the United States to emulate this approach. Currently, the U.S. is facing regulatory uncertainties and a brain drain in the blockchain field. If regulators could treat practitioners better and give them more clarity and freedom, we would see better results.

My suggestion is to leverage your regulatory experience to provide entrepreneurs with better opportunities to expand globally.

DC: Thank you, Cathie. I’ll ask one last “million-dollar” question that everyone here is interested in: how do you see the price of Bitcoin evolving? We’ve heard many numerical predictions, and I’d like to hear your opinion. Some say $1.5 million, some say $2.3 million, and others say $3.8 million per Bitcoin. Cathie, what is your current prediction, and what is the timeline?

Cathie Wood: I have been asked this question from different angles, and our analysis from multiple perspectives indicates that by 2030, Bitcoin could rise to $1.5 million. This price prediction is based on a survey about institutions, using a discount rate and volatility analysis. Previously, the prediction for Bitcoin’s price in 2030 was $600,000, but the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF will push the price to $1.5 million by 2030.

If I had given you this number last year, it would have been closer to $600,000. Why did we increase the number from $600,000 to $1.5 million? Because the SEC gave the “green light” and approved the issuance of a spot Bitcoin ETF for mainstream institutions. If you allocate 5% of your assets to Bitcoin according to modern portfolio theory, we arrive at the $1.5 million estimate because we believe that investment institutions will move in this direction.

DC: Thank you, Cathie, for letting everyone know about the $1.5 million per Bitcoin price estimate. This concludes our fireside chat. Thank you to Cathie for providing insightful and interesting discussion, and goodbye everyone, let’s give Cathie another round of applause.

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Colin Wu, Chinese journalist, won 2013 China News Award